At first, it seemed some geeked-out supercoder was going to make an easy million.
In October 2006, Netflix announced it would give a cool seven figures to whoever created a movie-recommending algorithm 10 percent better than its own. Within two weeks, the DVD rental company had received 169 submissions, including three that were slightly superior to Cinematch, Netflix’s recommendation software. After a month, more than a thousand programs had been entered, and the top scorers were almost halfway to the goal.

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His name is Gavin Potter. He’s a 48-year-old Englishman, a retired management consultant with an undergraduate degree in psychology and a master’s in operations research. He has worked for Shell, PricewaterhouseCoopers, and IBM. In 2006, he left his job at IBM to explore the idea of starting a PhD in machine learning, a field in which he has no formal training. When he read about the Netflix Prize, he decided to give it a shot — what better way to find out just how serious about the topic he really was?

-Jordan Ellenberg: “This Psychologist Might Outsmart the Math Brains Competing for the Netflix Prize," 2/25/08, Wired.

THE “NAPOLEON DYNAMITE” problem is driving Len Bertoni crazy. Bertoni is a 51-year-old “semiretired” computer scientist who lives an hour outside Pittsburgh. In the spring of 2007, his sister-in-law e-mailed him an intriguing bit of news: Netflix, the Web-based DVD-rental company, was holding a contest to try to improve Cinematch, its “recommendation engine.” The prize: $1 million.

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As Gavin Potter, a Netflix Prize competitor who lives in Britain and is currently in ninth place, pointed out to me, a computerized recommendation system seeks to find the common threads in millions of people’s recommendations, so it inherently avoids extremes. Video-store clerks, on the other hand, are influenced by their own idiosyncrasies. Even if they’re considering your taste to make a suitable recommendation, they can’t help relying on their own sense of what’s good and bad. They’ll make more mistakes than the Netflix computers — but they’re also more likely to have flashes of inspiration, like pointing you to “Napoleon Dynamite” at just the right moment.

-Clive Thompson: “If You Like This, You’re Sure to Love That—Winning the Netflix Prize," 11/21/08, NYT.